In the 2024 primary election, Americans for Prosperity spent close to $350,000; most of which was supporting liberal Republican incumbents and candidates against solidly conservative legislators. This election, while supporting similar candidates, conservative estimates are that they will exceed that amount.
Of the 18 candidates that AFP endorsed in the 2024 election, 14 won. According to Evidence Based Wyoming, those 14 vote with the Republican majority a paltry 31.5% of the time. Jackie Van Mark, who lost her House District 5 race to Scott Smith that year, was on Liz Cheney’s re-election team. Rob Hendry is now the chairman of the Natrona County Republican Party, and Cat Urbigkit has consistently written columns about bigger government.
Americans for Prosperity-Wyoming’s Candidate Spending
But AFP’s public rhetoric paints a very different picture than their actual politics. Only one example of their public messaging is necessary: “Big Gov’t is Bull.” Government spending is, by definition, increasing the size of government. The Open Range Record conducted an in-depth analysis of the increased spending in amendments to the House of Representatives version of Wyoming’s budget, HB0001. Amendments to the budget are sponsored by individual representatives. Most of AFP’s endorsed candidates are members of the House.
The 11 members of the Wyoming House of Representatives that AFP has endorsed averaged $845,005,364 in new Wyoming government spending. The only reason that number is that low is that AFP endorsed 3 conservative legislators who spent far less money than the others. Julie Jarvis led the spending pack with an astounding $1,244,616,188. That number is over and above the base budget of essential services. Jarvis was followed by Marilyn Connolly with $1.241 billion and J.T. Larsen with $1.238 billion.
| AFP's Endorsed Candidate Increased Spending Votes | |||
| Representative | Increased Spending Votes | Spending Decrease Votes | Net Spending |
| Julie Jarvis | $1,300,960,582 | $56,344,394 | $1,244,616,188 |
| Marilyn Connolly | $1,298,673,949 | $57,029,688 | $1,241,644,261 |
| J.T. Larson | $1,295,195,432 | $56,344,394 | $1,238,851,038 |
| Ken Clouston | $1,196,069,188 | $47,529,688 | $1,148,539,500 |
| JD Williams | $1,102,135,067 | $46,544,394 | $1,055,590,673 |
| Cody Wylie | $1,100,620,810 | $56,344,394 | $1,044,276,416 |
| Rob Geringer | $1,021,565,268 | $56,344,394 | $965,220,874 |
| Martha Lawley | $943,062,060 | $56,344,394 | $886,717,666 |
| Daniel Singh | $315,257,205 | $20,485,294 | $294,771,911 |
| Ocean Andrew | $156,070,440 | $985,294 | $155,085,146 |
| Dalton Banks | $20,045,329 | $300,000 | $19,745,329 |
| Average Increase | $845,005,364 | ||
| *Souce: https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2026/HB0001 Amendments | |||
The legislators listed by Evidence Based Wyoming as the top 11 conservatives, averaged $28.4 million in new appropriations. That is still new spending, and it is still increasing the overall size of government; but there is a world of difference compared to AFP’s endorsed candidates. If indeed Americans for Prosperity-Wyoming is in favor of smaller government, and if they believe that “Big Gov’t is Bull,” they clearly have endorsed the wrong people. The truth, however, is they aren’t in favor of those things.
And, neither is AFP-Wyoming’s state director, Tyler Lindholm, but for different reasons. After his election loss to current Speaker of the House Chip Neiman, Lindholm publicly praised Mark Gordon’s handling of COVID. In a now deleted video, Lindholm said, “We do need to flatten the curve. We could do so voluntarily. And our governor has been fantastic about that.” Mark Gordon mandated masks and shut down businesses for weeks.
Lindholm, who claims to be a libertarian and against big government, then shockingly says in the video, “Personal choice is not working in certain places … I think we got to start calling people out. I know that sounds horrible, but I don't want to lose any more of my liberty because somebody feels like it's a, maybe there's a conspiracy theory.”
At the end of the video, Lindholm says, “That's kind of the ideology that I'm hoping will catch on. That's it. You know, let's just start shaming these sons of guns. Just like, hey, if you've been tested and you've been tested negative, you know, say, listen, I've been tested negative. “
Lindholm Cleans House
After Cowboy State Politics played several videos from Tyler Lindholm’s social media accounts last week, Lindholm scrubbed the videos from his facebook account. In one of them, posted in 2018, Lindholm derides Foster Friess for paying campaign workers to go door to door for him. In the 2024 election and in this election cycle, AFP-Wyoming has paid numerous people to campaign in neighborhoods in numerous districts.
AFP’s social media accounts are replete with pictures of their on-the-ground staff. According to Lindhom, paid staff were not acceptable in 2018 but are completely fine in 2024 and 2026 when AFP and Lindholm are paying them.
Outside the Mainstream
One of the most damaging bills to Wyoming’s energy economy was 2020’s HB0200, “Reliable and dispatchable low-carbon energy standards.” It mandated carbon capture technologies for all Wyoming coal fired power plants. According to a 2022 paper in the Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, HB0200 would (and did) have a significant impact on the overall price of electricity in Wyoming.
“A unit-level study on retrofitting existing coal-fired plants to meet the mandate’s emission limit estimated a 29% decrease in net unit efficiency. It would increase the levelized cost of electricity on fleet average by 237%. The CO2 avoidance cost was projected to range from $65 to $201 per metric-ton.”
Lindholm voted for this bill on introduction. While he did vote against it on 3rd reading, his initial vote helped bring the bill to the House floor during a budget session where all non-budgetary legislation requires a 2/3 vote to be discussed.
AFP-Wyoming sent mailers to several legislative districts this year attacking conservative incumbents for “Supporting legislation that would drive up energy costs.” The bill cited on the mailer was HJ0003, “Storage of spent nuclear fuel and waste-vote required.” The resolution would have allowed a statewide vote on the storage of nuclear waste in Wyoming. Not only would HJ0003 not drive up energy costs; Tyler Lindholm voted for legislation that actually did increase it by 237%.
Lindholm’s pharisaism extends beyond spending and energy. The 2019 legislative session brought his HB0234, “Marihuana [sic] reform.” Essentially, it would have removed all felonies from any marijuana offense, including trafficking in large quantities, and instead make those offenses a misdemeanor. So extreme was the bill that the Judiciary Committee didn’t even bring it up for discussion. During the session, The Cowboy State Daily published a news segment about Lindholm’s bill.
Voters in Wyoming are being deluged this election cycle with mailers, text messages and television ads like never before. Already, without any analysis, this election will be the most expensive in Wyoming’s history. Statewide candidate spending always eclipses that of state legislative races simply because a candidate has to cover the entire state. In legislative districts, however, AFP has vastly increased campaign spending over previous years. Most of their messaging is either entirely misleading or completely disingenuous. The record of the person behind AFP’s campaigning, Tyler Lindholm, casts a long shadow over anything that comes from that organization. At best, it’s misleading; at its worst, dishonest.